The tropical Pacific Ocean is getting warmer, which could change weather around the world. Experts believe there is a high chance, about 63 percent, that a very strong El Niño will form between November 2026 and January 2027. This event might be as strong as the most powerful ones recorded since 1950. El Niño happens every few years and changes ocean temperatures and air patterns. This time, ocean temperatures could rise by more than 2 degrees Celsius. Because the planet is already warmer due to climate change, this El Niño could be more damaging.
Celeste Saulo, from the World Meteorological Organization, stated that El Niño conditions are developing and are expected to become strong. She warned this will likely cause more extreme droughts, heavy rain, and severe heatwaves. These changes will affect different parts of the world in different ways. For example, Southeast Asia and Australia might have less rain, while the Horn of Africa could face more floods.
Food supplies may also be affected. Prices for some grains like durum wheat might increase. These issues come at a difficult time, as shipping problems are already making fertilizers more expensive.
For farmers, this could mean losing crops and animals, and their entire income. Jorge Alvar-Beltrán from the Food and Agriculture Organization explained that the world is warmer now, and with existing problems like conflict and food shortages, this El Niño will be hardest on vulnerable areas.
Past El Niño events have caused major problems, affecting millions of people. Now, organizations like the FAO and the World Food Programme are working to help people in high-risk countries before the worst happens. They are providing seeds, money, and water systems. However, there is still a risk that many people might have to leave their homes if crops fail and water levels change.