For many years, a strong unwritten rule has guided German politics: mainstream parties refuse to form governing partnerships with far-right groups. However, this long-standing boundary is now facing a serious challenge. As elections approach in September, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is close to gaining executive power at the state level for the first time since it was founded in 2013.
This political shift is most noticeable in the eastern parts of Germany. In Saxony-Anhalt, voters will go to the polls on September 6, 2026. Recent polls show the AfD leading with over 40 percent of the vote, according to reports from Handelsblatt and Deutsche Welle. This support is so high that if you add up the projected votes for the Christian Democratic Union, the Social Democrats, and Die Linke, their total is still less than the AfD's share.
Even if the AfD does not win outright, this level of support could allow them to block laws that need a large majority to pass. The reasons for this rise include lingering feelings of inequality in eastern Germany since reunification in 1990. Despite economic improvements, people in the east often earn less and have fewer savings than those in the west. Additionally, rural areas in the east are experiencing population decline, making it harder to maintain services and leading to voter frustration.
The AfD's message is also resonating in western Germany, fueled by concerns about immigration, the economy, and dissatisfaction with current leadership. Nationwide polls in April 2026 showed the party with about 28 percent support. In a surprising development, a July 2026 poll showed the AfD leading in Berlin for the first time. Crucial state elections are also happening in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, where the AfD also has a strong lead.
This situation creates difficulties for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his government, which is losing public trust. Mainstream parties face a dilemma: they can try to form unusual coalitions to exclude the AfD, but this might weaken their own political identities and lead to ineffective governance. A new party, BSW, founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, might also play a key role in coalition talks. As the September elections near, the traditional political system is under strain, and maintaining the barrier against the far right is becoming increasingly difficult.