Chile's President José Antonio Kast recently visited El Salvador's largest prison, looking for ideas. Across Latin America, a significant political change is happening. After voters elected progressive leaders in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Peru in the early 2020s to address inequality, the trend has reversed. Now, more citizens identify as center-right than in over twenty years, and by 2025, conservative politicians are expected to lead most of the region's governments.
This shift is driven by fear. Although overall murder rates in the region have decreased compared to a decade ago, certain violent crimes are increasing. Peru and Colombia, major cocaine producers, are facing more drug-related violence and extortion. Both countries reported their highest murder figures since at least 2020.
Scared voters are seeking strong leaders, and El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele has become an inspiration. In 2022, he started a large anti-gang operation, suspending legal rights and detaining about 100,000 people, nearly 2% of the population. Despite criticism from international groups for human rights violations, Bukele remains very popular in his country.
Now, politicians across the Americas are adopting his tough stance on crime. Enrique Roig, from Human Rights First, notes that this conservative movement is well-organized, often working with each other and even the MAGA movement in the United States, using crime to gain voter support.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump has supported this trend. He backed Honduran businessman Nasry Asfura, calling him an ally against "narco-communists." Asfura later won his election.
The political impact continues. In Colombia, lawyer Abelardo de la Espriella, known for his flashy lifestyle and music, is running for president. He promised a strong crackdown and a partnership with Trump, surprisingly winning 43.7% of the vote in the first round.
Even when conservatives narrowly lose, the trend is clear. In Peru, voters frustrated with corruption chose leftist Roberto Sánchez by a slim margin over conservative Keiko Fujimori. In Uruguay, even the leftist president acknowledged Bukele's security methods are worth studying.
However, making tough promises during a campaign is different from governing. Ecuador's President Daniel Noboa planned floating prisons for gang members but had to settle for a traditional mega-prison. Similarly, Chile's Kast, who promised to deport many immigrants, has only managed a few deportations, realizing that governing requires slow, careful steps.