Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz every day. This narrow channel between Iran and Oman carries one fifth of the world's oil and natural gas shipped by sea. Then the ships stopped coming.
On May 20, the United Nations released bad news. Economists cut their forecast for global growth in 2026 to 2.5 percent, down from 2.7 percent in January. The reason was clear: a war started on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran. Iran retaliated, and shipping through the strait nearly stopped. Although a truce was reached on April 8, tankers have not returned.
The effects are spreading worldwide. Western Asia, which grew 3.6 percent in 2025, will now grow only 1.4 percent. China's growth will slow to 4.6 percent, India to 6.4 percent, and the European Union to 1.1 percent. Global inflation is expected to reach 3.9 percent, much higher than predicted. Developing countries are suffering most, paying more for imported fuel while facing limited financing.
The United Nations warns of an even darker possibility. If high energy prices continue, global growth could fall to just 2.1 percent. This level of growth only happens during serious economic problems. Other organizations like the IMF, ECB and OECD have already warned about similar risks. One empty waterway has slowed the entire world.